CRYPTO: Can Stablecoins jumpstart the digital economy?


We are bummed with the SEC's rejection of pretty much every effort to launch a Bitcoin ETF, which is at the top of the wish-list for normalizing crypto currencies and assets. The investment management value chain is now caught in a weird race: (1) either crypto custody will become regulated and build tendrils to plug into existing infrastructure, or (2) a regulated wrapper, like an ETF, must contain underlying crypto assets, and then travel along into asset allocations of regular investors. Neither is going to change the mood of the market tomorrow. So instead of focusing on financial progress, could the crypto economy show some economic progress? 

A recurring thesis for spurring on that economic activity, supported by continued investment from crypto funds and ICOs, is the emergence of stablecoins. The argument goes that if you have a virtual currency that stays pegged to the US dollar, for example, then the currency can be used to buy and sell goods without the fear of volatility (or capital gains on buying a sandwich). It can also work as a unit of account in which other assets are traded. And if we can figure out how to dampen volatility in the markets, perhaps that will also be seen as a positive by the SEC. A lot of ink has been spilled on how different projects are different -- but at the core, this is an automated macro banking algorithm that must maintain price parity, backed by assets, leverage, or fraud. One that can be manipulated or broken (e.g. below, Nubits).

We see stablecoins as incrementally helpful, but not sufficient. You still need a fiat/crypto equilibrium mechanism, and if a stablecoin becomes large enough to maintain a digital economy, it comes into direct competition with the United States government, its monetary policy, and its police force. It is highly unlikely that the US will let a decentralized or private actor print the equivalent of dollars. Who knows, maybe a central bank issued coin is still a reality -- take for example,Thailand, which is working with R3 on interbank transfers. While this isn't what most Bitcoin enthusiasts would want, the USD is the best peg to USD. Let's just get people to hold it in a Bitcoin wallet -- which is why rounding your change into crypto using Revolut, or getting a blockchain-native phone once it's out, could be so meaningful.


Source: Medium (Nathan Sexer on Stablecoins), WSJ  (SEC rejection), CoinDesk (Thailand bank coin)