BLOCKCHAIN: JP Morgan mints crypto JPM-coin, exposed to $10 trillion opportunity

You know by now that JP Morgan launched a crypto asset called JPM coin. You've probably seen the self-satisfied memes showing Jamie Dimon publicly hating on Bitcoin, contrasted with his own massive bank launching its proprietary, closed cryptocurrency (leveraging open source software created by others) within a year -- and claiming it is a meaningful invention. Perhaps you've read that this is a first-of-its-kind symptom demonstrating that banks are finally coming into crypto. Cool, huh! Yet all of these reactions are mostly irrelevant to thinking about what's happened.  

First things first. JPM has started production deployment of an internal blockchain (i.e., for its clients and divisions), which they have been developing openly for years, applied to multiple use-cases from international payments, to corporate issuance, to trading and other capital markets businesses. This is a no-brainer, and the totality of such projects should create $250 billion of industry-wide enterprise value in cost-savings over the next 10 years. The new thing is that they have added a token into this blockchain that carries digital scarcity, and can therefore be used for international value transfer. As an aside, the UBS utility settlement coin pioneered this type of asset over a year ago, led at the time by Alex Baitlin, who has since left to found smart crypto-custody company Trustology (backed by ConsenSys and Two Sigma).

Who should worry about the inevitable but welcome growing competitive landscape of bankcoins? First of all, consortia players like Ripple and SWIFT (partnered with R3) cannot be happy with the development, since JPM funnels a meaningful portion of the cross-border B2B money movement flow already -- $6 trillion per day. What's odd also is that half a year ago JPM was planning to spin out another proprietary blockchain project (Quorum), since other banks were refusing to use it. The internal value generation within the firm of essentially having a cloud-like solution for value transfer must be sufficiently large to alienate others.

On top of that, let's clarify what bankcoins are. Money supply is divided into M1 (cash and checking), M2 (very liquid cash equivalents), and M3 (more engineered cash equivalents). Bitcoin wants to be cash/M1, which is very hard given that to print money is to be sovereign -- see David Siegel's primer on money in the links below. So in the US, M1 is around $3 trillion. But the delta to M3 is another $10+ trillion, and includes things like money market funds, overnight obligations between investment banks (hey there corpse of Lehman Brothers), repurchase agreements, and other gargantuan liquidity instruments manufactured by banks. In fact, M3 is so obtuse and large that the Federal Reserve stopped publicly tracking it in 2006, and the data only exists on a synthetic basis from ShadowStats. This is what JPM coin is at its core. This is what all stablecoins -- tethered as cash sweep into their respective proprietary exchanges -- can ever become. A paltry $10 trillion.

b42cc761-f001-47a4-a38c-6361b69df123[1].jpg
76e7f2e9-716d-47e0-a3d3-38eccf38f2a3[1].gif
b49bd562-9658-4271-991e-63ca46ed5d2e[1].gif

Source: CNBC (JP Morgan), Shadowstats (US M3), Wikipedia (Euro Money Supply), Medium (David Siegel on Money), Federal Reserve (M3 Data)