2018 FINTECH PREDICTION IN REVIEW: Crypto Eighteen

Here's what we said would matter in the past year year:

If you thought 2017 was loud about crypto, just wait till 2018. Up or down, that doesn’t matter — what will certainly be in play is massive volatility as the crypto economy beats on against traditional finance, regulators and sovereign power. The largest mountains to climb are the development of institutional crypto custody and a vanilla ETF product to absorb the splurging demand, and we think this will happen. In terms of creative destruction, we expect one of the top ten 2017 currencies to collapse 80%, one of the enterprise blockchain consortia to fall apart. New technical solutions like the Tangle or Hashgraph to challenge our assumption that Bitcoin is the endgame.

How did we do? Pretty well overall. We predicted massive volatility and we got it. The massive market capitalizations of 2017, rounding up to $1 trillion, have deflated down to $100 billion and change. Many assets melted 80%+, but we will call out Bitcoin Cash specifically, which fell from $40 billion to less than $3 billion after yet another rough fork at the end of the year. On the other extreme, EOS raised $4 billion in ICO funds. New smart contract platforms indeed came to market – from EOS to Hashgraph to Dfinity – but Bitcoin dominance has stayed fairly flat at 40-60%. 

The negotiation against incumbent sovereigns and traditional banking moves forward; regulators across the world have placed many 2017 digital assets in a regulated “securities” bucket, with enforcement actions starting to target individuals and exchanges. At the same time, institutions like Fidelity have launched crypto custody divisions, the NYSE is launching crypto exchange Bakkt, and the number of enterprise players in the space has grown like weeds. While no ETF was launched due to SEC concerns around market maturity, an Exchange Traded Product did launch in Switzerland using VanEck index data.

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Source: 2018 Keystone Predictions Deck, Coinmarketcap (total capitalization, % BTC dominance), Fidelity, Amun ETP, Bakkt via ICE/NYSE