12 Million AR/VR Devices via Pop Culture

Despite all the talk of mixed reality hardware leading us towards augmented commerce, it still feels like nobody has a AR/VR headset. Will this be an actual platform shift, like mobile phones, or a dud like 3D films? First, the numbers. Last year, about 8 million headsets shipped to consumers, with 12 million expected in 2018. These include a variety of quite different devices — screenless viewers into which you plug in a phone (good for 360 video, but laggy), stand-alone headsets (VR rendering hardware and software in a single package), tethered headsets (plugged into a desktop for rendering horsepower). We are also on the verge of seeing more augmented reality devices, like Magic Leap and HoloLens, that have semi transparent lenses and render virtual objects in the real world, as well as wireless headsets for full VR.

The developer ecosystem is also moving well along. Google has released its developer kit a while ago, turning Android devices into AR units. It now has 85 apps, of which several enable commerce. See EbayOverstockWayfairIKEA, and the Food Network. Google is also opening up its Maps API to help catalyze the development of location based AR apps (think PokémonGo). Microsoft’s HoloLens has done the same in 2016, targeting industrial applications, like architecture and construction. And Magic Leap is opening up its hardware for developers now, promising a high end augmented reality experience — the least they could do after over $2 billion in private funding. And in the crypto world, projects like Bubbled* are exploring augmented reality land titling, to keep vagrants trying to catch some rendered critter out of your backyard.

It’s hard to catalyze a change in human behavior. If you do it, and then own some dimension of the ecosystem along which you can take economic rents (e.g., hardware or capital or data), the outcome is a multi-billion dollar honeypot. Thus HTC, Facebook, Google, PlayStation and others are all throwing billions into the sacrificial fire. But getting people to change how they pay for things, or what currency they use, or what data they share is immensely hard. 

Which is why, we think, there’s the beginnings of a media content wave that’s meant to normalize mixed reality hardware. See for example the blockbuster film “Ready Player One”, where the main character’s life is dreary in the real world, but full of potential in the virtual one. Or the teen show called “Kiss Me First”, where the main characters struggle with social media, identity and the requisite drama in part through adventure in a virtual world. If iconic cultural experiences tell us that mixed reality is normal and here to stay, well you get it. You might not care, but your kids will tell you to buy it.