UK Motor Insurance Premium & Profit Profile

Autonomous Research has projected the UK motor insurance premium and profit profile in the period 2015-2060. Our estimates indicate that premiums will see an annual 1.5% rise leading up to 2025 with the current 20% return on capital (ROC) shrinking to a more sustainable 10%. This is reflected by the sharper fall in profits in the period 2015-2025. In our view, 2025 will be the pivotal point for motor insurers as self-driving cars take hold and premiums fall by nearly two-thirds by 2060. Unsurprisingly, profits are also expected to fall in this period; however we do not assume a slash in profitability with ROC remaining roughly constant at 10%.