This deep dive integrates lessons from major stakeholders in the automobile industry to provide a dynamic understanding of Fully Autonomous Vehicles and their impact on insurers, car makers, governments and individuals. We have generated a technological roadmap for self-driving cars and we dive into the underlying market forces and technological innovation driving the shift towards autonomy while considering the economic effects on developed, emerging and global markets.

Key Findings 

  • Developed world vehicle fleet to contract by 14% by 2060 as car-sharing and robo-taxis emerge in urban environments. The key period will be between 2025-40, as partially/fully autonomous cars rise from 1 in 10 to over 50%.

  • Emerging markets are likely to triple fleet numbers by 2060 but will only begin to shift towards autonomous from 2035 onwards, with autonomous vehicles dominating (76%) by 2060. 

  • Motor insurance premiums in the developed world will slowly rise from US$487bn to $572bn by 2035 but will then more than half to $246bn by 2060. Furthermore, it is projected that the developed world’s share of global premiums will shrink from 67% to 28% by 2060.

Table of Contents

Changing Driving Habits

  • Quantified the negative impacts of current vehicles such as pollution levels, accident rate and costs associated with owning a vehicle

  • Analysis of current inefficiencies caused by urbanization, congestion and lack of vehicle utilization

  • Map of the global car market penetration over the world, depicting the percentage increase in vehicles since 2006 by major economic regions

Car usage and associated growth rates by geography

Safety in the Rear View Mirror

  • Impact of the technologies in reducing fatalities since their inception, as well as the reduction in injury crashes as road safety shifted towards prevention over the past 15 years

  • Trend of motor premiums over previous years as more information on clients becomes readily available to insurers

Relationship between Premiums and Claims in the EU

ADAS Technology – The Run in to Full Autonomy

  • Technological Runway from ADAS to Autonomous with current standpoint and future barriers

  • Potential benefits of ADAS Technology featuring breakdown of UK motor claims, estimated reduction in insurance claims and reduction in accidents

  • Key factors impacting ADAS adoption rate and analysis of US consumer willingness to purchase and costs of ADAS features

Expected economics for autonomous/artificially intelligent features

Fully Autonomous Cars Emerge & Implications for Insurers

  • Overview of a self-driving car featuring a breakdown of individual components

  • Case study analysis regarding autonomous car safety record in California and quantitative analysis of customer attitudes towards fully autonomous cars

  • Original Equipment Manufacturers’ (OEM) plans for fully autonomous cars and timeline projection of driverless car market

  • Overview of the evolution of motor insurance beginning with the price comparison websites of today, the shift towards telematics and ultimately to driveless cars

  • Modeled predictions of insurance premiums in the future as autonomous vehicles begin to be adopted, highlighting the difference in adoption times between emerging and developed markets

Implications to car insurance market

Engage with Autonomous

Financial service companies are transitioning from human driven revenue models to information technology driven revenue models. As part of our ongoing focus on this transition, and the core technology themes being expressed in finance, we have established Autonomous NEXT. The products and services are designed specifically for financial firms looking for strategic insight into the pace and path of the core themes shaping the financial services ecosystem.

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